Full lesson
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Hypothetical tech stock, one trading day
A stock can lose fifty billion dollars without any cash disappearing. Here, a company's market value falls from five hundred billion to four hundred fifty billion in one day, a ten percent drop. Most people assume that money was destroyed, or handed to someone else. Neither one happened.
Chart values
| Day | Market cap ($B) |
|---|---|
| Yesterday close | 500 |
| Today close | 450 |
$100 x 5B shares = $500B; $90 x 5B = $450B
Market cap is just share price times shares outstanding. At $100 a share, with 5 billion shares, that's $500 billion. When the price falls to $90, the same 5 billion shares come to $450 billion. The share count never changed. Only the price moved, and that's where the $50 billion gap comes from.
Only 1% of shares traded today
Here's an assumption we'll use. On the day the price falls, only 50 million of the 5 billion shares actually change hands. That's about 1 percent. The other 4,950 million shares, 99 percent, never trade. Those holders did nothing, yet the headline number still counts their shares.
Chart values
| Label | Value |
|---|---|
| Traded | 50 |
| Did not trade | 4950 |
Each trade: cash moves buyer to seller
Let's follow one trade. A seller offers 100 shares at $90 through the exchange, and a buyer bids the same price. They've agreed. The buyer pays $9,000, and the seller delivers 100 shares. The cash simply leaves one account and lands in another, fully intact. Nothing is destroyed. Every trade works this way, just swapping cash and shares between two people.
Last trade $90 values all 5B shares
Here's where the headline number comes from. The most recent trade happened at $90, and that price gets applied to all 5 billion shares, including the 4.95 billion that never changed hands today. Multiply $90 by 5 billion and you get a market cap of $450 billion. It's an estimate, not cash.
Today's few buyers and sellers set the price for everyone
Prices are set at the margin. When sellers are eager and buyers cautious, trades clear lower, and that lower price becomes the label on everyone's holdings.
Cash traded vs value repriced
Only about 4.75 billion dollars actually changed hands, from buyers to sellers. The 50 billion dollar drop is something else. It's 5 billion shares, each marked down 10 dollars. Cash moved a little; the estimate of value moved a lot, and nothing was destroyed.
Chart values
| Label | $ billions |
|---|---|
| Cash paid buyers to sellers | 4.75 |
| Market cap drop | 50 |
Company cash stays $60B
Market cap isn't money sitting in the company's bank. Those trades happened between investors, so the company's vault never moved. Its assumed $60 billion in cash is untouched. Only the estimated value of the shares changed, while the cash the company actually owns stayed exactly where it was.
Investor with 100 shares bought at $100
Take someone holding 100 shares bought at $100. If they keep them, $10,000 becomes $9,000, a paper loss that can reverse if the price recovers. If they sell at $90, the $1,000 loss is locked in, and the buyer supplied their $9,000.
- Kept them: $10,000 to $9,000, unrealized
- Sold at $90: realized $1,000 loss
- Seller's $9,000 came from the buyer
Caveat: a lower price still matters indirectly
A lower price still matters indirectly. If the company wants to raise one billion dollars by issuing new shares, at ninety dollars it needs about 11.1 million shares instead of 10 million, so existing owners are diluted more. Employee stock pay also becomes worth less.
- Raising $1B needs 11.1M shares, not 10M
- Employee stock pay is worth less
Repriced, not removed
The last trade price reprices every share, including the ones that never traded. Add them up, and you get the new market cap, four hundred fifty billion dollars. Meanwhile, trade cash only changes hands, from buyers to sellers. So with the next big headline, ask who actually traded, and for how much.
